Global console shipments are set to hit a peak of 339 million units by 2026 before facing a sharp decline in 2027 due to a global RAM crisis. This production bottleneck will reshape the market right before the next generation of hardware arrives. Buyers should note that supply constraints may impact availability for the upcoming consoles.
Analyst forecast highlights Sony's dominance over Microsoft in next console generation
S&P Global forecasts that the 2028 launches of the PlayStation 6 and Project Helix will reverse the declining trend. The report positions Sony as the clear leader in this next cycle. Microsoft's Xbox Series generation is already showing signs of weakness in the current market.
Analyst estimates indicate that PlayStation 6 shipments will outsell Project Helix by a factor of 2.5. This projection suggests Sony will maintain its sales dominance into the tenth generation of consoles. The data relies on market analysis rather than official manufacturer confirmations.
Xbox console shipments fell below 5 million units in 2025 for the first time since 2001. Financial data identifies the third quarter of 2026 as the worst quarter for hardware earnings in the entire Xbox Series generation. These figures highlight the competitive pressure Microsoft faces as the market shifts.
We've been tracking PlayStation 6 closely — see our earlier coverage on S&P Projects $600-$800 Price for Project. The forecast confirms that Sony is expected to lead the next market cycle while Microsoft struggles with lower volume and earnings.
The 2028 console cycle will be defined by the disparity in shipment volumes between Sony and Microsoft. RAM shortages will temporarily suppress production before the new hardware launches. The market will likely see Sony secure a significant lead in the next generation.
Source: TweakTown
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